Do we really think climate change is a distant threat?

We know the devastating effects of climate change, yet we don't always act in a way that reflects our desire for a healthier planet. Research investigating the reasons for this mismatch has floated a number of contributing psychological factors, such as anxiety, ideology, perceived risks of change, and more. One of the reasons most widely assumed to be a major contributor, however, is the a sense that the impacts of climate change are far away, and are only an issue for those in remote locations in the far future. 

Campaigners often use messaging that aims to reduce people's psychological distance to climate change. But with freak weather events stacking up around the world, do we actually feel as psychologically distant from climate change as those campaigns might assume?

Writing in One Earth, a team of University of Groningen researchers review the literature on psychological distance — a sense of not being emotionally or psychologically connected to climate change — seeking to understand how prominent it really is, and whether it discourages us from taking action.

In order to examine the evidence on psychological distance, the team reviewed representatively sampled polls, correlational studies, and experimental studies, as well as communication guidelines written by both governments and NGOs to encourage climate action. This material accepts and understands psychological distance from climate change as a potential barrier to climate action, and tests whether reducing this distance can increase people's motivations to engage in it. 

In contrast with common assumptions, data from these investigations suggests that most people consider climate change to be extremely close. In the 27 international opinion polls surveyed by the team, 12 show a "consistent majority" who believe that "climate change is already occurring now or will occur within the next few years," both in their country and local area. Two polls conducted in 2019 and 2021, which had 100,000 participants in 121 different countries, saw 41% of participants state that climate change was a very serious issue in their country. Even in countries with a high level of climate skepticism, such as the US, more than 60% of respondents reported believing climate change would harm people in their country.      

Many also believed that climate change was already impacting their lives. One poll saw 82% of European respondents, 76% of American respondents, and 98% of Chinese respondents state that "climate change [was] having an impact on their everyday life". These numbers did vary by survey, however, with others seeing smaller (but still unfortunately large) percentages agree with this claim. A UK-based poll, for example, showed only 21% of participants believed they had already been significantly impacted by climate change. Taken together, however, the data indicated that contrary to generally held assumptions, a large section of the world's population feel both psychologically and materially close to climate change. 

The team next looked for links between psychological distance from climate change and climate action. Here, evidence was mixed. Some research found that when people see climate change as psychologically distant, they are less likely to engage in behaviour related to limiting climate change and to support climate change policies. Others, however, found no relationship between psychological distance and climate action. Within some studies, there were mixed effects, suggesting that perhaps only particular elements of psychological distance affect our capacity or desire to engage in climate action. Exactly which elements these are, though, seems to be an open topic for future research.

Surprisingly, some studies also suggested that people are actually more likely to engage in climate action when they see climate change as psychologically distant. Some poll participants, for example, saw strong societal consequences of climate change, but weak personal consequences — yet this predicted strong support for climate change policies, particularly when climate change was seen to significantly impact developing countries. 
 
Overall, the review finds that most people believe climate change is psychologically close, both in terms of time and where it's effects are felt. Even so, the idea that people are largely psychologically distant from climate change, and that reducing that distance may spur action, remains persistent — despite mixed evidence. Perhaps, the authors speculate, this idea remains so pervasive because it feels like an intuitive explanation for inaction. Proliferation of this belief, however, may significantly hinder the effectiveness of climate campaigns. 

The team concludes the review with a strong message to others in the field, providing a path forward on this topic that would have meaningful impact on climate action:

"We recommend that researchers, communicators, and policymakers focus on how the finding that many people already perceive climate change as occurring here and now can be leveraged to accelerate the transitions necessary to limit global climate change to 1.5°."

Read the paper in full: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.03.006